顯示具有 stock 標籤的文章。 顯示所有文章
顯示具有 stock 標籤的文章。 顯示所有文章

AIG 拿納稅人的援款付紅利?

>> 2009/03/15

讓我聯想到電影 Wall Street 裡面,麥克道格拉斯飾演的 Gordon Gecko 評論 Teldar Paper 的說法:Survive of the unfit。

話說保險巨人 AIG,2008 年第四季才慘賠 617 億美金,全年共虧損約 1000 億美金 (折合台幣約三兆四千多億)。這家以破紀錄的速度賠錢的保險公司,因為「大到不能倒」,所以去年已經得到美國政府 1500 億美金的紓困救援,而就援規模最近又擴大為 1800 億美金。

偏偏今天傳出消息,AIG 仍然計畫發放一億六千多萬元美金的紅利給高階主管。這份報導中說,AIG「承諾會謹慎發放將來的紅利」,也指出雖然新任財政部長認為這種措施「無法接受,尤其是納稅人才剛投入大筆公款救援這家公司」,但是也補充財政部「沒有強制力能夠阻止該公司發放這筆紅利」。

AIG 當然會有千百個理由可以說明,這筆紅利是早已預先準備好發放的 (雖然很難想像一家以破紀錄速度賠錢的公司要以什麼立場發紅利獎金 ─ 獎賞管理階層他們賠的夠快?),他們也能夠保證將來會更嚴謹的發放,不過這整個新聞看起來其實就只是 ─ Party's over, grab what you can.

他們當然知道政府接管勢在必行,將來美國政府也必然會在主要銀行和 AIG 佔有多數股份。因此這種紅利可一而不可再,機會僅此一次縱之即逝。趁還有主導權的時候為自己撈最後一筆,反正將來再也沒有這種往年視為理所當然的「福利」了。

也難怪嘲笑銀行業 Golden Parachute 的漫畫裡面會說,「銀行業的老闆,好像表現越差獎金就越高」。

Read more...

十大熱門基金績效

>> 2008/11/26

今天有個朋友敲我,叫我去看看 Yahoo! 奇摩理財裡面,最多人推薦的基金,績效如何。一看之下還真愣住了,二十檔基金裡面沒有一檔是賺的。整理了一下圖表:

十大熱門基金,季報酬率

十大熱門基金,半年報酬率

十大熱門基金,年報酬率

看來幾乎所有熱門基金的虧損都是在 -40% 到 -60% 之間啊。有幾檔基金或許是因為成立還不到一年,所以沒有年報酬率資訊。可是如果六個月內就已經虧掉基金的 50%,之後要怎麼幫投資人賺回來?

聽說國內共同基金有至少持股七成的規定。如果是真的,那麼基金淨值下跌也不能怪他們,畢竟他們至少得有七成股票,大盤跌他們也跟著跌。但是 -40% 到 -60% 也未免跌的太兇了吧... @_@

資料來源:Yahoo! 奇摩理財 - 最多人推薦基金排行榜

Read more...

所以,楊致遠即將要下台了。

>> 2008/11/19

事情的演變告訴我們,就如同量子力學的測不準原理一般,世事發展不會盡如所料。但是,趨勢的脈絡卻是相去不遠的。

年初,當微軟提議併購 Yahoo! 的時候,我就說:

如果你問我,我覺得 Yahoo 是否應該答應?我會說,"the short answer is yes"。
你想問更詳細一點的話,我會說,"the long answer is a bit longer, but it's still yes"
為什麼?因為不管用任何理由來看,我都看不出來 Yahoo! 有能力在短期內,讓股價爬的比微軟出價更高。既然如此,在高點出脫給微軟,不就是對股東最好的交代?當時,常有朋友問我對這案子的看法。我也鐵口直斷的說,「必定會成交」。我的理由是:
  1. 當時就看的出來,全球經濟局勢依天比一天壞。雅虎不趁這個價格賣,三五年內絕對沒這種好價格。
  2. 如果楊致遠不肯賣,鐵定會有嗜血的資本家跳出來逼宮賺取價差。(果不其然,後來 Icahn 加入戰局,大舉購入雅虎股票,並且威脅董事會就範)
  3. 如果楊致遠還是不願意妥協,那麼微軟極可能結合 (2) 中的資本家角色,來發動董事會投票戰,撤換董事會之後拉楊致遠下台。然後換一個聽話的 CEO,上台繼續併購案。 (Icahn 當初的聲明也很有這種味道)
  4. 即使楊致遠可以抵擋 (2) 和 (3) 的情勢,那麼由於 (1) 的關係,事後很可能會證明公司股價無法達到微軟出價的高點。那麼楊致遠自己的位子恐怕怎麼也坐不住了。
因此,總結各種因素,我怎麼看都認為微軟買 Yahoo 根本是已成定局的事情。甚至當初在 Icahn 開砲的時候我也說
如果說 Icahn 採取行動以前,沒有和微軟達成某種程度的協議的話,我是不相信的。
結果,人算不如天算。完全出乎我的意料之外,Yahoo 董事會和 Icahn 之間達成了共識,由 Icahn 方面佔取兩席董事。當然協議的內容外界無從得知,我們也無法了解到底 Yahoo 董事會給了 Icahn 些什麼檯面下的東西。總之我們知道,最後微軟的併購案被扔出窗外,宣告破局。

後來,隨著雷曼兄弟、AIG、美林等金融機構地雷接連爆發,舉世皆知的「金融海嘯」發生了。11/6,楊致遠對外公開說,他仍然認為 Yahoo 和微軟的結合「是最好的方案」。在金融市場的一般解讀,傳達出的訊息是「楊致遠放棄抵抗,決定還是放手了。」

就在今天,消息傳出,楊致遠即將交棒。Yahoo 目前正在尋找下任 CEO 的可能人選,物色到適當的人物之後,楊致遠即將下台一鞠躬。

楊致遠下臺的理由是什麼?是疲累倦怠?心灰意冷?還是被逼宮下台?我不知道。
但是我知道,在微軟和 Yahoo 購併案破局的那一刻開始,這個事情就不遠了。

[Update] 有人問我,楊致遠下臺是不是在「搬開石頭」讓微軟可以放手買?我覺得倒是很難說。理由是:
  1. 首先,微軟到目前為止,都還沒有再度公開說過他們有意購買雅虎。
  2. 其次,即使微軟仍然有意購買,現在估價的水準一定會比年初的時候低上許多。雅虎股價和年初相比已經不只是腰斬,如果微軟現在出價有當初的六折已經是很慷慨了。那麼,雅虎現在的董事會願意接受這麼低的出價嗎?尤其是幾個月前才拒絕這麼高的價格?
  3. 再其次,即使微軟有意購買、也有意思出高價,但是現在的環境恐怕不允許他們這樣做。微軟自己股價也跌了不少,各大銀行現在也都緊縮信用銀根。要一口氣買雅虎這麼大的公司是不可能不融資的。但是現在的信用環境和銀行氣氛,對這種大規模融資案並不那麼歡迎。簡單的說,就是微軟的融資成本會比年初高上許多。因此即使微軟有意出價,恐怕也是有心無力,不一定吃的下來。
但是話又說回來了,人算總是不如天算。讓我們慢慢靜看事態發展吧。

Read more...

全世界都來一起做假帳

>> 2008/10/15

把頭埋在沙子裡面,不代表問題就解決了。

今天看到個有趣的標題,「金融資產損失 可暫不列帳」。看到有點傻眼,國際會計準則委員會簡直就是昭告天下:「大家準備一起來做數字美化帳面吧!」在這種局面下,財務報表數字還有什麼參考價值?

我想很多人可能不太了解這是什麼意思。講白一點,這種意思等於是說,以美國為首的國家,他們會計編列帳目的準則,可以暫時不用把金融資產的損失,列入帳面損失。講的更白,就是告訴他們:你們目前股票或是金融投資賠的錢,只要還沒認賠殺出,全部都可以假裝沒有損失!沒賣出就沒賠錢!這種做法唯一的目的很明顯,就是美化財務報表的數字。讓許多自以為「選股重視基本面」的人,看了財務報表以為買到好公司,等到事情爆發了才知道原來是地雷股,因為這些損失全部都沒有揭露在財報上面。而且這還是國際會計準則公開說許可的做法!

真讓人難以置信。會計帳目編列本來就是為了讓人可以客觀的看出公司的財務狀況。現在國際會計準則都公然允許大家做數字美化帳面了,將來財務報表還有什麼可信度可言?

金融資產損失 可暫不列帳

【經濟日報╱記者李淑慧/台北報導】
2008.10.15 02:43 am

國際會計準則委員會(IASB)昨(14)日突然發布新的會計準則,允許列在「交易目的」項下的金融資產,在某些條件下可以重新分類到「非交易目的」。這項修正案等於為陷入困境的全球金融機構解套,其巨大的投資損失將可不必反映在損益表。

金融資產重新分類後,這允許金融機構的資產可以暫時不必以市價來評價,虧損壓力將大幅獲得紓解。國內多家壽險公司包括國泰人壽、宏泰人壽等,在第一時間就取得國際會計準則委員會所修正的內容,趕緊拿給會計部門研商。

金管會昨天也收到這份新的會計準則,由於國內實施的34號公報是依據此準則訂定,金管會副主委吳當傑表示,已經請會計研究發展基金會研究,基於與國際會計準則接軌的立場,台灣很有可能跟進。

雷曼兄弟倒閉引發全球金融危機,不少人都認為,除了銀行本身的財務槓桿太高、過度投資之外,34號公報也是促成金融機構倒閉的重要原因。

華爾街日報不久前剛報導歐盟打算修改按照公平市值計算的會計準則,主要是因為銀行以市值評價旗下的資產,導致銀行在全球金融風暴下不得不提列鉅額的虧損。

國際會計準則委員會並未經過徵詢外界意見等正常程序,昨天就突然發布修改會計準則的消息,且新規定追溯自到7月1日開始適用,讓外界相當震驚。

金管會官員表示,在全球金融危機下,如果還按照公平市價來評價其下資產,恐會讓金融市場失序。尤其證券化商品並無流動性,市價已經不是那麼客觀。

美國國會已經授權給美國證管會,可以暫時終止美國157號公報,也就是以市價評價金融資產的準則。

國際會計準則委員會也跟進美國作法,允許在某些條件下,掛在「交易目的」項下的金融資產,可重新分類到「非交易目的」(「備供出售」或「持有至到期」)。這將允許金融機構的資產評價損失可以暫時不必列入損益表,虧損壓力將可大幅獲得紓解。目前34號公報不允許企業任意更改會計項目,掛在「交易目的」項下絕不能改掛到其他項目,否則就有操縱損益嫌疑。

官員表示,國際會計準則委員會修改會計準則,當然希望全球金融機構可以安度這次的危機,但為了避免業者趁機操縱損益,一定會訂定相當嚴格的條件,符合條件者才能重新分類資產項目。

Read more...

漲停收市的指數期貨

>> 2008/09/08

今天的市場充滿了驚奇。漲停鎖死的指數期貨可不是每天都看的到的。

今天台灣無論大台小台電子金融四個指數期貨全部漲停。主要指數裡面,還沒漲停的大概就只有新加坡的摩台指數了吧。指數期貨漲跌停雖然不是第一次出現,可也不是每天都看的到的。不紀念一下好像說不過去 :p

不過,這到底是表示 6200 低點已過,還是持續下殺前的反彈?就讓市場自己告訴我們吧。:)

漲停收市的期貨市場

Read more...

美國終於接管 FM2 了

今天美國財政部終於證實傳言已久的消息:將用納稅人的錢替 FM2 (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac) 買單。由政府接管這兩家機構,並撤換兩家公司的執行長。雖然 Paulson 曾經宣稱不願意用納稅人的錢替兩家公司股東擦屁股,但是顯然系統性風險的事實由不得他不低頭。

FM2 總共管理的房貸業務大約是 5.4 兆美金,佔全美房貸業務的一半,這次次貸風暴受傷也最慘烈。如果當年看了 Peter Lynch 的書,卻盲目不理會其他條件,抱了 Fannie Mae 到現在的話,那荷包可也傷的很了...

那麼,FM2 被政府接管之後,美國房貸市場會怎麼走?或許應該這麼問:在崩解邊緣的房市,會因為這樣觸底反彈嗎?

Source: US Government takes over mortgage giants

Read more...

為什麼股市大跌和 633 跳票沒關係

>> 2008/09/04

請注意,我指的是和 633 的「新聞」沒關係。我也沒有替馬小九辯護的意思,開了支票自己負責兌現,政治魔人不要來鞭我。

今天 (9/4) 股票大跌,加權指數跌了 172 點。許多媒體報導都歸咎於馬英九的 633 政見跳票導致。聽了也只能笑笑。媒體總是需要為市場的起落找理由。

大家都知道,金融市場對新的消息反應極為迅速。例如某股獲利超出或是不如預期的時候,股票的漲跌往往就在幾個 tick 的時間內一次到位。但是 633 的政見跳票,是 9/3 的消息,各大報也都在 9/4 的晨報就報導了。(請見自由聯合中時蘋果) 如果是因為這個消息而讓市場大跌發酵,那麼開盤就應該大跌開出才對。但是今天的指數線圖卻是這樣:

20080905走勢圖

九點多甚至還是漲的,後來一路下殺到接近 12 點才到當日低點。顯而易見,大跌的原因單純是空方力道較強,和 633 的新聞一點關係也沒有。每次市場大跌的時候,媒體總是需要一些理由的。

不過做錯方向的人,總是需要情感發洩的代罪羔羊。這也是可以理解的... 誰沒有做錯方向的時候呢?

題外話,這邊的小馬哥木炭很威啊 XD Q&A 真的讓人笑翻了 XD

Read more...

巴基斯坦救股市奇招

>> 2008/08/28

這樣還要交易所幹嘛?

以前空頭市場股票大跌的時候,每當政府基金進場護盤,我們總是聽到這樣的聲音:

  • 自由派:「讓市場自然調適就好了嘛,政府過度干涉是不好的」
  • 激進派:「靠,要不要乾脆規定股票只准漲不准跌?」
Well,激進派的聲音,巴基斯坦政府聽到了。話說巴基斯坦政府禮拜三收盤之後公佈,要替股票訂下一個「交易下限」(price floor)。交易下限是什麼意思?就是股票價格不准低於 27 日的收盤價。如果股票價格低於 27 日的收盤價,是無法成交的!

換句話說,股票准漲不准跌。就算日後要跌,也不准跌低於 27 號收盤價。這是政府規定的「低點」!

大有為的巴基斯坦政府,執行力非常驚人,展現了世界其他國家無法望其項背的魄力和決心。不過既然這樣,幹嘛不乾脆把交易所關掉算了?0_o

Source: Pakistan stocks rise after Exchange sets price floor

Read more...

157 點的逆價差

>> 2008/06/19

逆價差
(原尺寸的圖在這裡)

好久沒看到這種景象了。大跌不怎麼令人意外,但是高達 157 點的逆價差卻著實不常見。在期貨市場的賣聲隆隆之中,也讓人再次見識到市場激情的特色。

Read more...

鉅子 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了

>> 2008/05/16

雖然最近忙到翻掉,但是看到這麼戲劇性的東西,還是要寫一下當紀念的 :p

就在 Steve Ballmer 說微軟決定撤回對 Yahoo 的併購案之後,今晚 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了,發表了一封公開信。這位老兄好怒啊。他形容雅虎董事會

「躲在管理階層過度樂觀的財務預測後面,十分不負責任。」
他也說,
「微軟的提案十分慷慨,對雅虎的估價比公開求婚的前一天還要高出 72%。拒絕這個提議顯然是非常不理智的。」
實力雄厚的 Carl Icahn,除了開罵以外,也擺明他不是只有一張嘴而已。公開信中聲稱,他已經花了十三億美金買了雅虎五千九百萬股 (大約佔雅虎 4% 股權)。而且他正在向美國聯邦交易委員會提出申請,希望得到反托拉斯的許可,以便買下價值二十五億美金的雅虎股權 (大約 8% 左右)。

Icahn 表示不只贊成微軟的購併案,而且也打算提案撤換雅虎的董事會 - 他已經公開提了一個十人名單,希望能夠在七月三號的雅虎股東年會上面,取得多數董事席位。十人都是赫赫有名,除了他自己以外,還包括:
  • 網路創業傳奇人物 Mark Cuban
  • Viacom 創辦人 Frank Biondi Jr.
  • New Line Cenima 的 CEO Robert Shaye
  • 創投家 Adam Dell。啥?你不認識他?那你至少該認得他哥哥 Michael Dell 吧?
Carl Icahn 這些舉動的背後,和微軟的 Steve Ballmer 有沒有什麼默契或是私下的合作,是很耐人尋味的。不過這是楊致遠和雅虎董事會要擔心的事情了。我們只要負責看連續劇看不到的好戲就好了啊! XD

話說回來,楊致遠接任 CEO 以後,風波總是不斷。他能夠有時間精力來做好公司重整的工作嗎?我很懷疑。光是應付微軟大巨獸想必就已經筋疲力竭了。現在又來一個 Carl Icahn,恐怕難得有一夜好眠了...

[註] Carl Icahn 是具有傳奇色彩的投資人。他以爭取股東權益聞名,令許多上市公司老闆聞之色變。最近的事蹟是投資摩托羅拉事件。他所投資的公司,通常伴隨著大規模的重整,包括經營階層的重新洗牌與裁員。
[註二] 公開信的全文在這裡可以看到。我照引如下:

SECURITY HOLDERS ARE ADVISED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT AND OTHER DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE SOLICITATION OF PROXIES BY Carl C. Icahn AND HIS AFFILIATES FROM THE STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. FOR USE AT ITS ANNUAL MEETING, WHEN AND IF THEY BECOME AVAILABLE, BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION, INCLUDING INFORMATION RELATING TO THE PARTICIPANTS IN ANY SUCH PROXY SOLICITATION. WHEN AND IF COMPLETED, A DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT AND A FORM OF PROXY WILL BE MAILED TO STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT NO CHARGE AT THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION'S WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SEC.GOV. INFORMATION RELATING TO THE POTENTIAL PARTICIPANTS IN A POTENTIAL PROXY SOLICITATION IS CONTAINED IN EXHIBIT 1 TO THE SCHEDULE 14A BEING FILED TODAY WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

                                Carl C. Icahn
ICAHN CAPITAL LP
767 Fifth Avenue, 47th Floor
New York, NY 10153

May 15, 2008

Roy Bostock
Chairman
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Dear Mr. Bostock:

It is clear to me that the board of directors of Yahoo has acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders and Microsoft. It is quite obvious that Microsoft's bid of $33 per share is a superior alternative to Yahoo's prospects on a standalone basis. I am perplexed by the board's actions. It is irresponsible to hide behind management's more than overly optimistic financial forecasts. It is unconscionable that you have not allowed your shareholders to choose to accept an offer that represented a 72% premium over Yahoo's closing price of $19.18 on the day before the initial Microsoft offer. I and many of your shareholders strongly believe that a combination between Yahoo and Microsoft would form a dynamic company and more importantly would be a force strong enough to compete with Google on the Internet.

During the past week, a number of shareholders have asked me to lead a proxy fight to attempt to remove the current board and to establish a new board which would attempt to negotiate a successful merger with Microsoft, something that in my opinion the current board has completely botched. I believe that a combination between Microsoft and Yahoo is by far the most sensible path for both companies. I have therefore taken the following actions: (1) during the last 10 days, I have purchased approximately 59 million shares and share-equivalents of Yahoo; (2) I have formed a 10-person slate which will stand for election against the current board; and (3) I have sought antitrust clearance from the Federal Trade Commission to acquire up to approximately $2.5 billion worth of Yahoo stock. The biographies of the members of our slate are attached to this letter. A more formal notification is being delivered today to Yahoo under separate cover.

While it is my understanding that you do not intend to enter into any transaction that would impede a Microsoft-Yahoo merger, I am concerned that in several recent press releases you stated that you intend to pursue certain "strategic alternatives". I therefore hope and trust that if there is any question that these "strategic alternatives" might in any way impede a future Microsoft merger you will at the very least allow shareholders to opine on them before embarking on such a transaction.

I sincerely hope you heed the wishes of your shareholders and move expeditiously to negotiate a merger with Microsoft, thereby making a proxy fight unnecessary.

    Sincerely yours,

CARL C. ICAHN

SLATE BIOGRAPHIES

Lucian A. Bebchuk

Lucian Bebchuk is the William J. Friedman and Alicia Townsend Friedman Professor of Law, Economics, and Finance and Director of the Program on Corporate Governance at Harvard Law School. Bebchuk is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Inaugural Fellow of the European Corporate Governance Network. Trained in both law and economics, Bebchuk holds an LL.M. and S.J.D. from Harvard Law School and an M.A. and Ph.D in Economics from the Harvard Economics Department. He joined the Harvard Law School faculty in 1986 as an assistant professor, becoming a full professor in 1988, and the Friedman Professor of Law, Economics and Finance in 1998. Bebchuk has written extensively on corporate governance, corporate control, and corporate transactions. He has published more than seventy research articles in academic journals in law, economics, and finance. Upon electing him to membership in 2000, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences cited him as "[o]ne of the nation's leading scholars of law and economics," who "has made major contribution to the study of corporate control, governance, and insolvency." He is the 2007-2008 President of the American Law and Economics Association, and a former chair of the Business Association Section of the American Association of Law Teachers. Bebchuk's recent writings include Pay without Performance: the Unfulfilled Promise of Executive Compensation (Harvard University Press, 2004, co-authored with Jesse Fried), "The Case for Increasing Shareholder Power" (Harvard Law Review, 2005), "The Costs of Entrenched Boards" (Journal of Financial Economics, 2005, co-authored with Alma Cohen), and "The Myth of the Shareholder Franchise" (Virginia Law Review, 2007). Bebchuk has been a frequent contributor to policy making and public discourse in the corporate governance area. He has appeared before the Senate Finance Committee, the House Committee of Financial Services, and the SEC. He has published many op-ed pieces, including in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Financial Times. He was included in the list of "100 most influential people in finance" of Treasury & Risk Management and the list of "100 most influential players in corporate governance" of Directorship magazine.

Frank J. Biondi, Jr.

Since March 1999, Mr. Biondi has served as Senior Managing Director of WaterView Advisors LLC, an investment advisor organization. From April 1996 to November 1998, Mr. Biondi served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Universal Studios, Inc. From July 1987 to January 1996, Mr. Biondi served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Viacom, Inc. Mr. Biondi is a director of Amgen Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp., Hasbro, Inc., The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and Seagate Technology. Mr. Biondi is a graduate of Princeton University and earned a Masters of Business Administration from Harvard University.

John H. Chapple

John Chapple is President of Hawkeye Investments LLC, a privately-owned equity firm investing primarily in telecommunications and real estate ventures frequently working in conjunction with Rally Capital LLC. Prior to forming Hawkeye, John Chapple worked to organize Nextel Partners, a provider of digital wireless services in mid-size and smaller markets throughout the U.S. He became the President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Nextel Partners and its subsidiaries in August of 1998. Nextel Partners went public in February 2000 and was traded on the NASDAQ Exchange. In June 2006, the company was purchased by Sprint Communications. From 1995 to 1997, Mr. Chapple was the President and Chief Operating Officer for Orca Bay Sports and Entertainment in Vancouver, B.C. During Mr. Chapple's tenure, Orca Bay owned and operated Vancouver's National Basketball Association and National Hockey League sports franchises in addition to the General Motors Place sports arena and retail interests. From 1988 to 1995, he served as Executive Vice President of Operations for McCaw Cellular Communications and subsequently AT&T Wireless Services following the merger of those companies. From 1978 to 1983, he served on the senior management team of Rogers Cablesystems before moving to American Cablesystems as Senior Vice President of Operations from 1983 to 1988. Mr. Chapple, a graduate of Syracuse University and Harvard University's Advanced Management Program, has 26 years of experience in the cable television and wireless communications industries. Mr. Chapple is the past Chairman of Cellular One Group and CTIA-The Wireless Association, past Vice-Chairman of the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association and has been on the Board of Governors of the NHL and NBA. Mr. Chapple serves on the Syracuse University Board of Trustees currently as Chairman and the Advisory Board for the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. He is also on the Board of Directors of Cbeyond, Inc., a publicly traded Atlanta-based integrated service telephony company; Seamobile Enterprises, a privately held company providing integrated wireless services at sea; Telesphere, a privately held VOIP (voice over internet protocol) company based in Phoenix, Arizona; and on the advisory boards of Diamond Castle Holdings, LLC, a private equity firm based in New York City and the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs at University of Washington.

Mark Cuban

Since early 2000, Mr. Cuban has been the majority and controlling owner of the National Basketball Association franchise, the Dallas Mavericks. In 2001, Mr. Cuban co-founded HDNet, an all high-definition television network on DIRECTV that broadcasts high-definition sports, movies and other entertainment. Prior to his purchase of the Dallas Mavericks, Mr. Cuban co- founded Broadcast.com in 1995 and served as its Chairman of the Board until it was sold to Yahoo! in July of 1999. Before Broadcast.com, Mr. Cuban co-founded MicroSolutions, a national systems integrator, in 1983, which was later sold to CompuServe Corporation in 1990. Mr. Cuban is an active investor in cutting- edge technologies and various industries, including the entertainment industry.

Adam Dell

Since January 2000, Mr. Dell has served as the Managing General Partner of Impact Venture Partners, a venture capital firm focused on information technology investments. He also serves as Managing Director at Steelpoint Capital Partners, a private equity firm with offices in New York and California. From October 1998 to January 2000, Mr. Dell was a Senior Associate and subsequently a Partner with Crosspoint Venture Partners in Northern California. From July 1997 to August 1998, he was a Senior Associate with Enterprise Partners in Southern California. From January 1996 to June 1997 Mr. Dell was associated with the law firm of Winstead Sechrest & Minick, in Austin, Texas, where he practiced corporate law. Mr. Dell's investments include: Buzzsaw (which was acquired by Autodesk), HotJobs (which was acquired by Yahoo!) and Connectify (which was acquired by Kana Software). Mr. Dell has been a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. In addition, Mr. Dell currently serves on the boards of directors of the Santa Fe Institute, MessageOne and OpenTable. He also teaches a course at the Columbia Business School on business, technology and innovation and is a contributing columnist to the technology publication, Business 2.0. Mr. Dell received a J.D. from University of Texas and a B.A. from Tulane University.

Carl C. Icahn

Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and a director of Starfire Holding Corporation, a privately-held holding company, and chairman of the board and a director of various subsidiaries of Starfire, since 1984. Since August 2007, through his position as Chief Executive Officer of Icahn Capital LP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P., and certain related entities, Mr. Icahn's principal occupation is managing private investment funds, including Icahn Partners LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund II L.P. and Icahn Partners Master Fund III L.P. Prior to August 2007, Mr. Icahn conducted this occupation through his entities CCI Onshore Corp. and CCI Offshore Corp since September 2004. Since November 1990, Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P. Icahn Enterprises L.P. is a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Mr. Icahn was chairman of the board and president of Icahn & Co., Inc., a registered broker- dealer and a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, from 1968 to 2005. Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and as a director of American Railcar Industries, Inc., a company that is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing covered hopper and tank railcars, since 1994. From October 1998 through May 2004, Mr. Icahn was the president and a director of Stratosphere Corporation, the owner and operator of the Stratosphere Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, which, until February 2008, was a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P. From September 2000 to February 2007, Mr. Icahn served as the chairman of the board of GB Holdings, Inc., which owned an interest in Atlantic Coast Holdings, Inc., the owner and operator of The Sands casino in Atlantic City until November 2006. Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board and a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. Mr. Icahn has served as a Director of Cadus Corporation, a company engaged in the ownership and licensing of yeast-based drug discovery technologies since July 1993. In May 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of Blockbuster Inc., a provider of in-home movie rental and game entertainment. In October 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of WestPoint International, Inc., a manufacturer of bed and bath home fashion products. In September 2006, Mr. Icahn became a director of ImClone Systems Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, and since October 2006 has been the chairman of the board of ImClone. In August 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company, and since September 2007 has been the chairman of the board of WCI. In December 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products, and since January 2008 has been the chairman of the board of Federal-Mogul. In April 2008, Mr. Icahn became a director of Motricity, Inc., a privately-held company that provides mobile content services and solutions. Mr. Icahn received his B.A. from Princeton University.

Keith A. Meister

Since March 2006, Keith Meister has served as Principal Executive Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P., a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Since November 2004, Mr. Meister has been a Managing Director of Icahn Capital LP, the entity through which Carl C. Icahn manages third party private investment funds. Since June 2002, Mr. Meister has served as senior investment analyst of High River Limited Partnership, an entity primarily engaged in the business of holding and investing in securities. Mr. Meister also serves on the boards of directors of the following companies: XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications company; WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company; Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products; and Motorola, Inc., a mobile communications company. With respect to each company mentioned above, Carl C. Icahn, directly or indirectly, either (i) controls such company or (ii) has an interest in such company through the ownership of securities. Mr. Meister received an A.B. in government, cum laude, from Harvard College in 1995.

Edward H. Meyer

Mr. Meyer serves as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Road Advisors, Inc., an investment management company. From 1970 to 2006, he served as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Grey Global Group, Inc., a multi-billion dollar global advertising and marketing agency. Mr. Meyer serves as a Director of Harman International Industries, Inc., Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc., National CineMedia, Inc. and NRDC Acquisition Corp. Mr. Meyer holds a B.A. in Economics from Cornell University.

Brian S. Posner

Brian S. Posner is a private investor. From 2005 through March 2008, he served as Chief Executive Officer and co-Chief Investment Officer of ClearBridge Advisors LLC (and its predecessor company, CAM North America), an asset management company based in New York with approximately $90 billion in assets and a wholly owned subsidiary of Legg Mason Inc. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors, he was a co-Founder and the Managing Partner of Hygrove Partners LLC, a hedge fund company that was formed in 2000. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors and Hygrove Partners, he served as a Portfolio Manager and an Analyst, first at Fidelity Investments from 1987 to 1996 and then at Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management from 1997 to 1999. At Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management he was a Managing Director and served as the Senior Investment Manager of the Value Equity Group, co-Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Growth & Income Fund, and Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Institutional Value Fund and the Warburg Pincus Trust, Growth and Income Fund. Prior to the acquisition of Warburg Pincus Asset Management ("WPAM") by Credit Suisse Asset Management in July 1999, he was co-Chief Investment Officer, Director of Research, Chairman of the Global Asset Allocation Committee, and a member of the Executive Operating Committee at WPAM. At Fidelity Investments, he was the Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Equity Income II Fund from 1992 to 1996 and the Fidelity Value Fund from 1990 to 1992. He also managed the Select Life Insurance, Select Property Casualty Insurance and Select Energy Portfolios. From 1987 to 1990, he was an Oil, Insurance, and Financial Services Analyst. From August 2000 to April 2003 he served on the Board of Directors for Sotheby's Holdings, Inc. He currently a member of the Board of Trustees at Northwestern University and the Board of Visitors for the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences at Northwestern University. Mr. Posner received his undergraduate degree in history from Northwestern University in 1983 and his M.B.A. in finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business in 1987.

Robert K. Shaye

Robert Shaye is Co-Chairman and Co-CEO of New Line Cinema. As the Founder of New Line Cinema and a filmmaker himself, Robert Shaye has spent more than 40 years developing and distributing films that reflect a wide array of cultural movements, creating new paradigms for the motion picture business, and most importantly, entertaining millions of moviegoers. Since he founded New Line in 1967, Shaye has guided the company's growth from a privately-held art film distributor to one of the entertainment industry's leading independent studios and a veritable box office force. He has been involved in such films as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, Rush Hour, Austin Powers and Seven. A University of Michigan graduate with a degree in business administration and a J.D. degree from Columbia University Law School, Shaye is also a Fulbright Scholar, member of the New York State Bar, and serves on the Board of Trustees of the Motion Picture Pioneers, and the American Film Institute.


Read more...

市場期望的三通效應,恐怕要失望了

>> 2008/03/26

至少是暫時失望的。

馬英九當選了,股市紅盤慶祝,外資買股瘋狂。翻開報紙,股民一片歡欣雀躍,許多人說,「不怕套牢,反正現在的套不是套,台股要等著上萬點了!」

(假想一下可能的對話...)

真的是這樣嗎?為什麼台股要上萬點了?

「因為兩岸要三通了啊。」

那為什麼三通以後,台股就會上萬點?

「你好笨喔,我跟你說啦,等我們跟大陸三通以後,大陸的觀光客都會來,然後台灣的企業都可以過去投資,對台灣當然是好的啦。台灣大賺其錢以後,台股不上萬點也難哪!」

那為什麼大陸願意跟我們三通?就算是三通以後,大陸的觀光客跑來的話,我們有哪些旅遊景點招待他們?我們交通幹線可以容納大量的觀光客嗎?如果容納不下,來的觀光客數目受到限制的話,對經濟又有什麼幫助呢?

「...」(默然以對)
請不要誤會,我不是反對三通。我也覺得三通早通比晚通好。但是,大陸人又不是笨蛋,憑什麼你說不通就不通,你說通就馬上通?為什麼李登輝、陳水扁加起來讓大陸吃了十二年的閉門羹,現在大陸卻要做這個球給馬英九?大陸政府也不是不知道台灣在等著賺他們的錢,幹嘛要把錢送給台灣賺,不順勢多凹一些政治籌碼?

那如果三通刺激台灣經濟之路不會那麼順遂的話,股市要怎麼瞬間飛躍萬點大關?更不用說即使三通以後,觀光客來台灣的交通住宿是否能夠容納等配套問題了。

[註] 今天寫這篇,是因為收到 stealth 轉寄一篇陶冬寫的文章。我查了一下,原文應該出自這裡。不過大陸網站在台灣看難免比較慢,我把原文照引如下。基本上的立論我是很同意的:台灣對三通和三通所造成的經濟前景太樂觀了些。
台灣市場對總統選舉過度樂觀

  經濟與政治難分家,在兩岸關係上更是如此。

  台灣民眾矚目於三月二十二日的總統大選,希望政局的改變,能夠帶來經濟的轉運,帶來兩岸關係的轉機。台灣經濟的轉型,以及最終收入與就業的改善,很大程度上取決於兩岸關係能否走出死胡同。今年一月立委選舉後的股市急升,反映出市場求變的心態和對轉型的信心;三通股一馬當先,則反映市場對兩岸關係迅速改善充滿期望。

  總統府易主,是對過去八年行政政策的一種了結,可能帶來新的思維、新的政策、新的希望。如果馬英九當選,更會帶來近年罕見的行政、立法上的一致,無疑有利於新政策的推出、執行。

  無論馬英九還是謝長廷當選,筆者認為兩岸關係都會揭開新的一頁。台灣海峽兩岸即使沒有蜜月期,也會有一個觀察期、適應期,雙方在觀望中調整,在調整中試探,在試探中適應。「聽其言、觀其行」,應該是北京的既定立場。適當地伸出橄欖枝,是自然的,但是指望北京熱烈擁抱台北新政權,則是天真的、不現實的。其實北京對馬英九並不信任。馬英九並非連戰,與中國既無淵源,又少共鳴,其過去之所言、所行,令北京有一種說不清的不安。謝長廷也非陳水扁,北京對謝的務實求變是有期待的,但是以「觀其行」起勢也在所難免——陳水扁當初也曾承諾「四不一沒有」。

  世界上沒有免費的午餐。台灣如果認為只要自己願意打開大門,大陸便會奉上黃金白銀,則未免過於天真。在北京眼裡,三通在二十年前是橄欖枝,十年前意味著通商,今天則等於送錢。兩岸之間長期進行著單向交流,台灣源源不斷地向大陸輸送著資金、技術、人才——心甘情願地,並從中獲利。

  今天所謂三通,是大陸資金、遊客進入台灣,基本上是大陸給台灣實惠,為台灣經濟輸血。這層互動的主導者是中國政府,而非大陸的企業或遊客,很難不打上政治的烙印。三通是大陸的籌碼,經濟上的實惠必然和政治上的互動聯繫在一起,北京希望以此建立起兩岸之間長期的、不可逆轉的良性互動和政治穩定。在沒有做到這一點前,打雷估計多過下雨,大方針易定,細節落實則可能大不易。

  說到細節,台灣政府中瞭解大陸、瞭解北京政府的人才奇缺。多少年來政府之間缺少起碼的溝通渠道,對於不同政府部門背後的利益淵源更是知之甚少。如此情況下,台灣與大陸打交道,便好像在黑屋內亂摸,不得要領。筆者相信,政府之間關於細節的談判,時間會拖得很長,一夜間成事更是不可能的。

  香港於一九九七年回歸,真正受惠於「中國因素」則是二○○三年以後的事,是在香港歷經SARS和政治危機之後的事。港府官員經常私下抱怨,與北京高官手握了,影照了,最高官員滿口表示合作,但是到了具體部門,香港官員連拍哪一個政府的門都不清楚,至於不同部門之間的利益糾葛則更是一無所知。換言之,上層的承諾難以落實到部門,至於項目細節的推進更是舉步維艱。港府官員至少花了五~六年時間,才摸出與北京衙門打交道的路數、竅門,雙方合作才變得順利。兩岸官場上所需要相互摸索的時間,只會更長不會更短。

  台灣的金融業並不發達,大陸企業不會大規模利用台灣的資本平台。坊間寄以厚望的大陸資金大量湧入,筆者認為也難在近期成事。大陸的QDII進入某市場前,必須與當地政府簽訂條約,在台灣主權定位這個問題上有繞不開的障礙,何況中國資金目前關心的是美歐市場。無論是主權基金還是巨型國企,筆者看不到它們入主台灣公司的強烈興趣。台灣缺少大陸資金最感興趣的要素——資源、金融、技術、品牌。

  更重要的是,兩岸關係並不穩定,總統官邸的主人四年一選,天空的顏色隨時可能由藍變綠,大陸投資隨時可能因變天而進退兩難,因此在目前環境下很難指望中國政府在針對台灣的大型併購上大力倡導、積極推動。當然不排除個人熱錢流入台灣房地產,不過這也未必是短期的事。

  比較現實的是旅遊業。台北小吃、故宮博物館、日月潭,對大陸遊客都有吸引力。不過除此之外的景點選擇好像並不多。台灣沒有香港的繁華塵囂、布吉的海灘陽光、巴黎的文化情調,台北之外的城市與大陸二、三線城市相比其實差別不大。

台灣目前每日允許一千名大陸遊客入境,一年的上限為卅六萬五千人,這與香港、澳門每年各自接納二千萬以上大陸人士相比,實有天壤之差。以目前的入境上限,大陸遊客對台灣GDP的真正拉動,不會超過○'○五%。即使上限向上加十倍,對經濟的實質貢獻其實也十分有限。

  面對大陸遊客入台的商機,台灣似乎炒作多、想像多,不過實際動作並不多。旅遊業要做的不僅是建幾家酒店,而可能需要在旅遊服務業作許多功夫,要設立面向大陸遊客的購物中心,推出生態、海洋旅遊,打造充滿台灣風清的民俗節目。海洋公園、廣東道、星光大道的變化,折射出香港旅遊業在吸引大陸遊客上所作的努力。經濟轉型,不僅是政府立場上的改變,同時必須伴隨著民間的努力、調整和創新。

  台灣這塊招牌必須珍惜,旅遊業的準備務必充分。第一步走得不好,口碑不佳,則以後步步受制,香港迪斯尼盲目自大,準備不足所產生的前車之鑑,不可不察。

  三月二十二日可能是台灣經濟出現轉機的一日。但是,經濟轉型需要時間,更需要努力,三通實難一蹴而就。市場似乎將總統大選當成台灣經濟轉型的速效藥,股市更偷步向上。在筆者看來這種觀點過度樂觀,甚至有些天真。

Read more...

MSCI 下修台股權重

>> 2008/02/15

我本來看到新聞嚇一跳,以為盤中這個新聞就出來了。如果真的是這樣,那麼今天大盤還可以漲三百點的話,觀點應該就要修正一下。還好仔細看了一下,應該是盤後的消息。

市場對這個新聞有什麼反應,看明天開盤就知道了。不過我可不希望它在這裡反應太兇啊,我希望大盤還能彈高一點再下手...

Read more...

微軟提議用 446 億美金收購 Yahoo

>> 2008/02/02

今天在 San Jose 旅館剛起床,到處都在講的新聞就是微軟提議用 446 億美金 (44.6 billion) 收購 Yahoo。消息一出,Yahoo 股價開盤應聲大漲接近五成,來到 28 元的水準。

YHOO 股價漲近五成

市場顯然十分喜歡這個 bid,也表示華爾街對 Yahoo 只靠自己的 restructure 和奮鬥是否能夠翻身已經不再具備任何耐心。由這種股價反映看來,華爾街顯然希望有外部的 executive 進來,或者尤其是微軟這種具有戰略性角色的公司來作收購。

這種股價曲線,看在眼裡,實在感觸不少。現在 Yahoo 已經淪落到即使股價漲了 50% 都還只有 28 元的水準了。在各界都對 Yahoo 喪失信心的時候,微軟的收購是否能夠替 Yahoo 重新帶來新生命?成敗當然還在未定之天。可是有希望總比沒希望好,金融市場總是希望有夢想。而夢想正是 Yahoo 沒辦法提供的。

如果你問我,我覺得 Yahoo 是否應該答應?我會說,"the short answer is yes"。
你想問更詳細一點的話,我會說,"the long answer is a bit longer, but it's still yes"。

Read more...

George Soros on the Market Crisis

>> 2008/01/24

大師說話了。正所謂喊水會結凍,不管信不信他的言論,整個市場都得瞧瞧大師說些什麼。索羅斯在金融時報寫了一篇評論,談的是最近的熱門話題 - Market Crisis。看來運用的仍然是他核心的 reflextivity 理論建構出的 boom-bust cycle,來解讀現在的市場狀況,以及信用市場不可避免逐漸緊縮的問題。

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.
大家的看法看來都差不多。只看看效應什麼時候逐漸展開,又會發酵到什麼程度了...

不過我倒是突然想到,這陣子馬英九謝長廷都狂拋經濟利多議題,每個人都想表現的好像自己選上以後台灣人每個都會口袋麥克麥克一樣。問題是我們接下來幾年面對的世界經濟局勢如此險峻,他們喊震天價響的口號到底有多少效果,可實在讓我不太有信心。但是我對歷任行政院長喊的口號倒是信心十足 - 絕對不可能實現。從連戰的「台灣競爭力 Top 5」 以來,張俊雄的 「Taiwan Double」、蘇貞昌的「大溫暖」,拋棄式的口號用過即丟,過往紀錄輝煌無比。我想這次由總統候選人喊口號,大概也是差不多吧。

Thanks to stealth for the link ;)

Read more...

Yahoo! 奇摩難道要去香港上市了嗎?

>> 2007/11/20

Well,大家都知道,經濟部商業司有個可以查詢工商登記的地方。當年找到「科高」也是多虧這個查詢網站。今天下午一時好奇,想翻查一些網路公司登記的營業項目不曉得都列些什麼。順手打「雅虎」下去查,跟以前一樣有很多其他阿里不打的公司用「雅虎」登記公司名稱。沒想到這時候突然發現...

yahoo_工商查詢_2

(你可以點這裡看大圖) 啥?Yahoo! 奇摩什麼時候變成「香港商雅虎資訊」了?而且英文名稱還是「YAHOO! TAIWAN HOLDINGS LIMITED」,是 Yahoo! 奇摩轉型當控股公司了嗎?@_@ 應該是被不知道哪個怪香港人註冊的公司名吧?當下立刻點下去看登記的資料

yahoo_工商查詢_3

(一樣,點這裡可以看大圖) 哇塞,還真的耶。連公司地址都和正牌的「雅虎國際資訊」一樣,而且「訴訟及非訴訟代理人姓名」也確實是... !那現在的 Yahoo! 奇摩網站,在台灣到達率超過98%,到底是「雅虎國際資訊」呢,還是「香港商雅虎資訊」才對?誰搞的清楚?

其實哪一個才對我也不太 care。我比較好奇的是,他們這樣轉變的背後意義是什麼呢?之前我曾經聽說過一些公司,為了處理勞退舊制和新制的問題,乾脆成立一個新公司,把舊公司的員工「解雇」,再由新公司重新 hire 這樣。可是雅虎奇摩在之前並沒有這樣做,反而是現在改頭換面變成香港公司,不禁讓人直覺聯想... 難道是準備趁香港股市正熱,到香港上市嗎?

當然這只是我的胡亂猜測。但是如果是真的,這一著可也真不錯。反正現在恆生指數熱成這樣,眼看著阿里巴巴這種網站都可以在香港上市當天立刻漲三倍,本益比超過 100 倍的時候,大股東跟著眼紅心動恐怕是難免的。只是,這個猜測到底是離譜到不行,還是稍微沾到一點邊,就只有天才知道了....

Read more...

2003 年至今,世界各國的股價變化

>> 2007/11/17

常常聽到有人說,政府執政做的很爛,台灣的股市表現都比其他國家差很多。也有不少人說,現在的台股指數比當年總統上臺的時候還高,怎麼會說台灣股市表現差呢?

剛好看到 Economist 在這邊有編一份圖表,2003 年至今幾個國家的股價指數變化就一目瞭然了。裡面也有把台灣排進去,可以稍微看一下。不過也要注意的是,因為計算基準是以 2003 年一月的股價指數來計算,所以最好也把 2003 年一月各國的股價位置考慮進去。

Stockmarkets

Read more...

諾亞方舟的啟示

>> 2007/10/09

諾亞方舟 (Noah's Ark) 的故事很有名。聖經記載,上帝告知諾亞祂要讓萬物滅絕,並且指示諾亞造方舟,讓他挑選一些動物一起到舟上避難。之後大洪水果然降臨,地上的萬物只有諾亞一家,以及方舟中的生物得以倖免於難。

諾亞為什麼得救?不是因為他預知了洪水,而是他造了方舟。
如果諾亞知道洪水要來,可是沒做逃生的準備,那一點用也沒有。

倘若瀏覽人氣旺的金融投資討論區,不管當下市場行情如何,總是有人對市場現況分析的頭頭是道。但是分析的好壞有什麼相干?鐵口直斷又有什麼屁用?投資績效的好壞,只看操作結果而定。

這次海外 subprime 泡沫影響到許多人的房貸。但是房價泡沫化是這幾個月才發生的事情嗎?早在 2003 年就有人大聲疾呼要小心注意了。雖然我們不能遇見泡沫什麼時候破裂,但是我們仍然可以知道泡沫正在形成。不是嗎?知道泡沫正在形成,卻沒有做任何規避的措施,這不就好像諾亞知道有洪水卻沒有造舟嗎?

911 事件發生以後,巴菲特的保險公司痛賠了不少錢。巴菲特只說,他居然也忘了諾亞方舟的啟示。明明知道有風險在這裡,卻沒有轉嫁出去,能怪誰呢?

不管我們想要什麼、希望什麼,都不重要。重要的只是我們作了些什麼。

Read more...

閱讀與投資

>> 2007/10/07

看書和投資其實很像。

  • 越早開始投資,複利的效果才更能發揮出來。越早開始閱讀,得到智慧的時間越長。
  • 一般人不愛投資,正如一般人不愛閱讀。
  • 大家都愛買的投資標的多半不怎麼樣,暢銷書排行榜的書也多半庸俗不堪。
  • 看到好書,就好像買了一流的投資標的一樣,會忍不住想推薦給其他人。
  • 其他人聽到這種推薦,泰半一笑置之,不會當真。
一個是智慧的資本,一個是財務的資本。但是大眾看待兩者的方式好像差不多。

Read more...

Yahoo! CEO Terry Semel 下台了

>> 2007/06/19

這幾天網路界的大事,應該就是 Yahoo! 的 CEO Terry Semel 終於下台了,楊致遠 Jerry Yang 重新上台掌兵符。在 Yahoo! 官方 blog 上也宣佈了這個消息

其實去年,就在 Yahoo! 股價跌跌不修的時候,我一直以為 Terry Semel 要閃人了。當時的投資人怨聲載道,幾個關鍵計畫例如 Panama 一延再延,華爾街實在是沒有什麼耐心多給他機會。我也已為去年十月 Yahoo! 的 re-org 會讓他下台,換當時的 COO Dan Rosenweig 繼位成為 CEO,沒想到局面剛好相反,董事會決定再給 Terry 一個機會,反過來把 Dan 砍掉 XD

不過畢竟一個連 email 都不用的 CEO,在網路泡沫的谷底或許適合帶領網路公司發展媒體公司之路 (你看 Tom Cruise 就會去 Sunnyvale 而不是 Google 的 Mountain View XD) ,但是在現在新技術大鳴大放的回溫時期,Terry 或許就不是一個上選的 CEO 了。

沒想到現在,Terry Semel 真的下台了,換成老面孔 Jerry Yang 回頭力挽狂瀾。正在走下坡的公司換老闆,華爾街當然喜歡。因為換老闆代表新走向,走下坡的公司有新走向代表有希望。但是這次 Jerry Yang 能不能帶著 Yahoo! 重新殺出一條自己的路?就有待觀察了...

不過很多人認為 Yahoo! 當年完全 ignore 掉搜尋市場是錯的,也認為 Terry Semel 完全錯過這個大餅,我的看法卻完全不一樣。事後諸葛當然很容易推敲一些簡單的結論出來,但是 Search 的市場真的很大嗎? ... Search 之所以是一個大市場、Google 之所以能夠靠這個賺錢,因為所有人都到 Google 做 search

換言之,只要這種情況不改變,那麼不管 Google 用 search 做什麼生意,都可以賺錢。因為這根本是一家獨大的市場,跟當年的微軟沒有兩樣。

重點不是 search 的市場,重點在於 Google 把一個市場弄到獨大了。Yahoo! 要怎麼走自己的路,就要看 Jerry Yang 怎麼重新定位走向了...

Read more...

VMware 準備 IPO 了

在 Engineer 以外的世界,知道 VMware 是什麼的人恐怕不多。不過,就在 VMWare 被 EMC 買走三年後的現在,VMware 也準備要 IPO 了。EMC 準備釋出大約 10% 的 VMware 股份,藉由 VMware 的價值來宣示 EMC 股價被低估。

2004 年的時候,EMC 花了 $635M 買下 VMware。而光是 2006 年,VMware 就已經為 EMC 賺進了 $704M,預估今年 VMware 會賺上 $1.2B。

看起來,EMC 還真是做了一筆好生意啊... 照這種市場價值估算起來,現在 VMware 的市值恐怕已經超過 $10 billion 了...

Read more...

最新文章

最新回應

部落格貼紙

  © Free Blogger Templates Autumn Leaves by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP