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金融市場的黑暗面

>> 2010/05/07

2010/05/06 DJ plunge

大家都知道昨夜美國道瓊一口氣狂瀉接近千點又猛拉數百點拉回。有些人說是錯帳,但是是否錯帳無關緊要,真正值得關注的是在後來出現的這個新聞 (在這邊有中譯):

Nasdaq 決定取消 14:40 - 15:00 之間跌幅超過 60% 的交易。但是 Nasdaq 聲明他們系統狀況沒有問題。
他們系統既然沒問題,幹嘛要取消交易?多半是因為有甚麼有權有勢的人或公司賠慘了吧。TheStreet 的報導還有一段話:
This decision cannot be appealed. 換句話說就是不能上訴,老子說了算。
今天如果是你,做錯了買賣,賠了一屁股錢,誰會理你?大家都會告訴你,金融市場要自負盈虧,風險要管好,資金控管要嚴格。

但是如果你是市場上的大莊家,當然另當別論,你可以自訂遊戲規則。別人打出安打,你可以說這局不算重來;相反的你打出安打,你可以出去巡迴演講,要別人有運動家精神尊重市場自由機制。

很黑暗,對不對?這也不是第一次了,以前 CBOT 也發生過類似的事情。

Welcome to the real world.

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這才不是孔子的勝利

>> 2009/11/01

忙完了一整天累壞了,卻看到了一則烏煙瘴氣的新聞,搞的一肚子鳥氣。


孔夫子紅到美國去 眾院決議案尊孔

更新日期:2009/10/31 13:23
至聖先師孔子在華人地區的影響力根深蒂固,現在甚至紅到了美國去,美國眾議院以壓倒性票數通過決議,表彰至聖先師孔子,讚揚他所提出的儒家思想,雖然今年5月,巴拿馬的環球小姐選美賽中,一名參賽佳麗還以為孔子是日本人,當場出了糗,不過孔子的聲名遠播,連美國人也開始體會到孔子思想的魅力。
巴拿馬佳麗:「『混亂』一詞,是孔子發明的,他是古代的中國人…日本人,距今年代久遠,謝謝。」
巴拿馬選美佳麗,搞不清楚孔子是何方神聖,還把孔子和混亂扯在一起,想必全球眾多華人看了是啼笑皆非。
還好美國國會對孔子推崇有加,最近眾議院以361票贊成、47票反對的壓倒性票數,通過決議案,表彰孔子儒家思想對人類社會的貢獻,孔子聲名遠播,連美國人也開始受到潛移默化。北京私塾老師:「父母呼,應勿緩。」
北京私塾裡,小朋友身穿著古代漢服,搖頭晃腦,跟著老師朗誦「弟子規」,場景彷彿回到古代過去,中國人尊孔不在話下,孔子今年滿2560歲,若是地下有知一定很高興;孔子熱捲土重來,連港星周潤發都要以考究的服裝造型,詮釋孔子,推出史詩鉅片。北京國子監司儀:「向大成至聖先師行禮,一拜。」
孔子影響力無遠弗屆,日本人也常帶著小孩到孔廟求智慧,孔子是中華文化的精髓思想,這一波孔儒熱潮席捲全球,都是孔子的大勝利。
真是好氣又好笑,不知道該生氣還是該捧腹大笑。這種神經病的尊孔方式,孔子會高興才怪!叫什麼「孔子的大勝利」?白濫的程度,跟常見的某種論調「孔子以及儒家其實是歷來政府愚民的工具」旗鼓相當,難分軒輊。盲目的尊孔和盲目的批孔一樣,祇是無知之下的愚昧行為而已。

要接近孔子的思想,就必須穿漢服嗎?那你讀十戒難道也要穿古希伯來服?讀可蘭經就要穿阿拉伯服?鬼扯!搞這種噱頭來教小孩,跟斂財的補習班有什麼兩樣?

這些尊孔的人既然連孔子生平都搞不太清楚,恐怕連一部論語都還沒讀過,更甭提什麼深入的研究了。他們既然不能理解孔子的思想,又要從何「尊」起?又有什麼可「尊」?

簡直是一堆神經病胡搞瞎搞。

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萬方有罪,罪在朕躬

>> 2009/08/15

「予小子履,敢用玄牡,敢昭告于皇皇后帝:有罪不敢赦。帝臣不蔽,簡在帝心。朕躬有罪,無以萬方;萬方有罪,罪在朕躬。」周有大賚,善人是富。「雖有周親,不如仁人。」「百姓有過,在予一人。」
-- 《論語》 堯曰
論語是中國人的聖書。論語堯曰篇第一章,記載商湯曾經在大旱祈雨的時候說過:「朕躬有罪,無以萬方;萬方有罪,罪在朕躬。」如果我有罪,請不要因此牽連眾生:如果百姓眾生有罪,請罪僅及我一人。同章中也記載,周武王時也說:「百姓有過,在予一人」。

這是中國古時代領導人的道德觀,後來被衍申發展為領導人應該扛的責任。當天災地震、瘟疫流行的時候,會看到古代皇帝下詔罪己,反省自身的不足之處,並且祈禱改進。因為他們相信這是因為領導人的疏失,才會導致黎民受苦。這種作法現在看來或許流於迷信,但是也是古代責任政治的一種表現。

責任,到最後都會歸到領導人身上。一家公司裡面,當組織專案進度落後、客戶意見反應不佳,當然有可能是因為專案成員執行不力或是產品規劃不良。但是所有的責任最後都會落在老闆身上。對外界來說,宏達電手機做的好不好,跟宏達電的工程師沒關係,跟周永明有關係。他們 Hero 機的市場定位好不好,跟產品經理沒關係,和周永明有關係。

這就是領導人的原罪。

這次台灣南部水災造成的傷害,大家都已經感受極深,也用不著我在這裡廢話。不過對政治人物來說,「萬方有罪,罪在朕躬」的勇氣與擔當,我們始終看不到。在軍隊裡面,如果一個義務役士兵打架鬧事,受到處份的不會只是直屬的班長排長,上級軍官也要背責任。當然連長旅長或許不在場,他可能對這個士兵為什麼打架毫無所知,但是在他的統馭之下發生狀況的時候,他的下層軍官沒有把士兵管好的時候,就是他的責任。

責任是有上限的。對公司來說,責任的上限就是公司負責人。對國家來說,責任的盡頭就是國家領導人。美國杜魯門總統曾經再桌上放了一個牌子,「The Buck Stops Here」。因為官僚體系習慣把責任層層上推,大家都不願意做決策負責。杜魯門用這個警語提醒自己,他是總統,他沒辦法把責任推走。重大的決策是他必須做的事情,沒有人可以替他做這個工作。責任,最後都是在他身上的。

這次風災水害,我們看到馬英九先是責怪氣象局播報不準,繼而接受訪問的時候說災民不肯撤哩,最後連是否接受外援都爆出外交部曾經發文給使館「婉謝」各國物資援助。我們看到的是表情充滿無辜的總統和行政院長。態度彷彿是「這不是我們的錯。是 xx 單位沒做好。事前我們也不知道外交部居然有發這種文。理性聰明的人民應該知道這不關我的事。」


但是這就是總統的事。一切都是總統的事。可能,他們真的不知道外交部有發文拒援。但是這也是總統的責任。外交部應該要能夠準確傳達政府的訊息給駐各國使館。或許中央氣象局的預報真的不夠準。但是這也是總統的錯,氣象局的資源夠不夠?行政部門本來就應該針對可能有誤差的氣象預報來預做準備。甚至地上有坑洞讓機車騎士跌倒、有人家裡遭小偷都是總統的錯。誰叫他沒有讓中央政府協助地方政府把道路鋪好?誰叫他沒有把治安治理好?

很殘忍,也很嚴格。但是這就是領導人的原罪。這才是「萬方有罪,罪在朕躬」的氣概和擔當。當領導人,就必須要能夠有氣魄來承受這種壓力和責任。這個責任如果扛不起,乾脆就下台一鞠躬換個領導人對國家社會還比較有幫助。

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我以為宗教信仰是受憲法保障的自由

>> 2009/08/01

不過社會風氣顯然不是這樣。最近空軍雷玉其找風水師的事件鬧的沸沸揚揚,相關新聞顯然不少。立委們紛紛以迷信相斥,認為有這種觀念的人不適合擔任空軍司令。

那麼,立委選舉的時候要不要去廟裡參拜?要不要去清真寺和教會博感情?拿香膜拜是不是迷信?對上帝禱告、往麥加朝拜是不是迷信?

現在的社會風氣似乎是,你可以信風水,但是不能曝光。身居高位者尤然。宗教信仰的自由?對社會接受度來說恐怕還早的很。

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歐巴馬的八千億紓困方案圖解

>> 2009/02/12

今天在華盛頓郵報看到一張有趣的圖。

最近各國政府對於經濟紓困都大筆大筆的灑錢,美國八千億美金,中國大陸四兆人民幣,大家數字比多的。但是誰知道這些錢到底要花到哪裡去?怎麼個花法?

華盛頓郵報對於美國的八千億美金紓困案做了個有趣的圖解。圖中可以分成三個部份,最上面可以看出八千億中哪些比例是減稅購成,哪些比例是另外的支出。而支出部分的六千三百億又可以在中間的圖表看到,分比重看出花在各個領域的金額大概是多少。

最下面的部份,是依照年份排列,讓你看看這些錢經過幾年之後消化起來會像是什麼樣子。
這種圖表看來一目瞭然,讓人對政府預算支出很容易有基本的概念,不再需要啃厚厚的資料慢慢消化。台灣的媒體也應該要做做功課搞一搞這種東西才對吧。不要每天只會報導一些無聊沒營養的新聞,連看都懶得看。

Obama 八千億美金紓困案圖解
(大圖可以點這裡觀看。Photo taken from Washington Post)

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2009 經濟學人的大麥克指數

>> 2009/01/23

但是老實說,我現在比較喜歡 iPhone index 之類的 :p

經濟學人又公佈新版的 BigMac index 了。跟 2008 夏季相比,日圓因為大幅升值被認為比較合乎正常價位。歐元也因為貶值比較沒有之前那麼多的溢價。

不過,這次的表格上沒有新台幣就是了。

2009 Economist BigMac index

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Economist: The World in 2009

>> 2008/12/03

今天看到同事在 7-11 拿起來翻,才想到忘記貼了:Economist 例行關於隔年的趨勢報導,已經可以線上觀賞了:The World in 2009。

今年不同的是,多出了一段分產業和國家的 "The World in Figures",網頁版也用了很活潑的 flash 介面來呈現,效果相當好。

The world in figures- Countries - Countries - The Economist_1228286735716

有 15 個產業的趨勢觀察,也有全球 80 個國家未來的展望。

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經濟不好是因為國際環境不好?

>> 2008/11/25

2000 年陳水扁上台,包括核四停建等等一堆狗屁倒灶的事情通通來。股市狂跌經濟不景氣,政府都說是因為國際環境不好。總之就是不會告訴你,全球股市從 2002 年開始復甦後,各個國家漲翻天,只有台灣還在原地踏步。

2008 年馬英九上台,沒多久之後「金融海嘯」的劇碼上演。一樣股市狂跌經濟不景氣,但是政府還是告訴你是因為國際環境不好。總之就是不會告訴你,台灣在亞洲國家裡面表現敬陪末座。

政府沒告訴你的是這張圖:

Asian economic comparison
圖片來源:Economist

這張圖是亞洲各個國家在 1998 年亞洲金融風暴,和 2009 年 JP Morgan 預估的 GDP 成長率比較圖。從這張圖可以看出來,亞洲各個國家當中,只有台灣,會在 2009 年表現的比 1998 年差。當然你可以 argue 說,那是因為台灣當年對付金融風暴得當,所以比較的基期比其他國家高。但是即便如此,一樣基期高的中國和印度就沒有這個問題。

政府不夠威就是不夠威。不管是國際環境不好、還是前政府的爛攤子太爛,都是拿來牽拖的藉口。真正的理由,就是不夠威啊。

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群眾果然很善忘

>> 2008/11/22

這兩天,行政部門放汽車補貼的風向球出來了。(請看中時、聯合、自由、NOWnews 都有報導)

在消費券和陳水扁案的氣氛下,汽車補貼搶不到多少新聞版面是很正常的。但是直覺聯想到的卻是:馬英九當選總統後,第一個公開拜訪的商人就是嚴凱泰。這中間有沒有什麼利益輸送?天曉得。不過好像沒什麼人關心,也沒什麼人記得當初這則新聞。

陳水扁現在已經不知道海角幾 e 了,馬小九下台看看會不會也來個天涯幾 e 吧 XD

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從陳雲林事件,看防微杜漸的道理

>> 2008/11/07

大家都知道,犯錯的時候,就要改過。剛開始錯的時候,改起來最容易。這是最簡單的道理,但是很少人做得到。

這次陳雲林來台灣一趟,從最早剛到台灣的時候在圓山被嗆,後來在晶華甚至被圍在飯店內出不來,最後一天所謂「圍城」更激起嚴重的流血衝突。但是這整波事件的開端,如果讓我來切分的話,我會說最開頭是張銘清。

張銘清事件,是造成這波流血衝突的主要原因。這件事情上,馬英九和蔡英文處理的都極其失敗。

張銘清來台灣,由於敏感的身分,一來就成為矚目焦點。由於他這趟行程是由高雄入境,前往台南,剛好都是政治版圖上比較反大陸的區域。因此許多人都抱持著「看好戲」的心態,等著瞧瞧會發生什麼事情。果不其然,後來就發生市議員王定宇率眾抗議、張銘清被追逐推倒的事情。

一般民眾可以抱持「看好戲」的心情來等新聞事件的發生,但是國家政府可不行。馬英九政府明明知道張銘清身分敏感,也知道很可能會碰上群眾抗議,但是卻沒有派遣足夠的警力來保護好張銘清的人身安全。這種可能性只有兩個:

  1. 馬政府政治敏感度太低,連這種常識都想不到。
  2. 馬政府太懦弱無能,雖然明知會有危險,但是因為怕被人罵「用台灣警察保護中國人」,所以不敢多所調動警力支援保護勤務。
以我的常識推斷,當然是 2 的可能性較高。簡單的說,馬英九政府必須為張銘清讓人有機可乘,負上完全的責任。是馬英九政府的預防措施不夠,導致所有連鎖的後續事件有發生的可能。他們沒有防患於未然的準備。

張銘清事件發生後,王定宇被起訴是必然的。但是對政治群眾支持者來說,王定宇被法辦只是「政治迫害」、「打小孩給外人看」而已。後續的解決只能仰賴他的政治族群領導者,也就是進進黨主席蔡英文。

不過蔡英文在這起事件中,也只說,「如果證明王定宇有錯,表達遺憾。」但是也沒有任何的處置。換句話說,等於是變相鼓勵支持群眾群起效尤。每個即將面對選舉的縣市議員,看到王定宇從沒沒無聞的地方議員,瞬間成為有全國性知名度的人物以後,又怎麼會不群相仿效?簡而言之,蔡英文必須為張銘清事件事後處理不當,負上完全責任。因為蔡英文事後處理的變相鼓勵,使得後面的連鎖事件發生的極為順暢。

一個是事前防範沒做好,一個是事後處理沒做對。

於是乎,陳雲林要來的時候,馬政府為了怕重蹈覆轍,只好用大量的警力來戒備。但是肅殺的氣氛卻炒熱了原本就已經沸騰的反對民眾情緒。而見獵心喜的縣市議員候選人,當然就在陳雲林來台灣的時候率眾抗議 (最初一兩天抗議帶頭的都是縣市議員)。之後綠營立委發現群眾力量逐漸累積,民氣可用,當然也就開始尋找屬於他們的舞台和政治養分。而群眾能量不斷蓄滿的結果,當然就是圍城的流血衝突了...

這個道理跟金融市場投機一樣。最初的損失就是最少的損失。這波金融風暴中,四五千點毫無反彈的下殺,如果有運用財務槓桿又沒停損的人早就被掃出場了。還能夠留在場內的人,只剩下方向作對、或是有停損點的人。

能夠在危機還沒擴大,甚至尚未出現之前就解決,才是好的危機處理。在這點上,我們應該鄙視馬英九和蔡英文。在危機處理上他們都不夠格。

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全世界都來一起做假帳

>> 2008/10/15

把頭埋在沙子裡面,不代表問題就解決了。

今天看到個有趣的標題,「金融資產損失 可暫不列帳」。看到有點傻眼,國際會計準則委員會簡直就是昭告天下:「大家準備一起來做數字美化帳面吧!」在這種局面下,財務報表數字還有什麼參考價值?

我想很多人可能不太了解這是什麼意思。講白一點,這種意思等於是說,以美國為首的國家,他們會計編列帳目的準則,可以暫時不用把金融資產的損失,列入帳面損失。講的更白,就是告訴他們:你們目前股票或是金融投資賠的錢,只要還沒認賠殺出,全部都可以假裝沒有損失!沒賣出就沒賠錢!這種做法唯一的目的很明顯,就是美化財務報表的數字。讓許多自以為「選股重視基本面」的人,看了財務報表以為買到好公司,等到事情爆發了才知道原來是地雷股,因為這些損失全部都沒有揭露在財報上面。而且這還是國際會計準則公開說許可的做法!

真讓人難以置信。會計帳目編列本來就是為了讓人可以客觀的看出公司的財務狀況。現在國際會計準則都公然允許大家做數字美化帳面了,將來財務報表還有什麼可信度可言?

金融資產損失 可暫不列帳

【經濟日報╱記者李淑慧/台北報導】
2008.10.15 02:43 am

國際會計準則委員會(IASB)昨(14)日突然發布新的會計準則,允許列在「交易目的」項下的金融資產,在某些條件下可以重新分類到「非交易目的」。這項修正案等於為陷入困境的全球金融機構解套,其巨大的投資損失將可不必反映在損益表。

金融資產重新分類後,這允許金融機構的資產可以暫時不必以市價來評價,虧損壓力將大幅獲得紓解。國內多家壽險公司包括國泰人壽、宏泰人壽等,在第一時間就取得國際會計準則委員會所修正的內容,趕緊拿給會計部門研商。

金管會昨天也收到這份新的會計準則,由於國內實施的34號公報是依據此準則訂定,金管會副主委吳當傑表示,已經請會計研究發展基金會研究,基於與國際會計準則接軌的立場,台灣很有可能跟進。

雷曼兄弟倒閉引發全球金融危機,不少人都認為,除了銀行本身的財務槓桿太高、過度投資之外,34號公報也是促成金融機構倒閉的重要原因。

華爾街日報不久前剛報導歐盟打算修改按照公平市值計算的會計準則,主要是因為銀行以市值評價旗下的資產,導致銀行在全球金融風暴下不得不提列鉅額的虧損。

國際會計準則委員會並未經過徵詢外界意見等正常程序,昨天就突然發布修改會計準則的消息,且新規定追溯自到7月1日開始適用,讓外界相當震驚。

金管會官員表示,在全球金融危機下,如果還按照公平市價來評價其下資產,恐會讓金融市場失序。尤其證券化商品並無流動性,市價已經不是那麼客觀。

美國國會已經授權給美國證管會,可以暫時終止美國157號公報,也就是以市價評價金融資產的準則。

國際會計準則委員會也跟進美國作法,允許在某些條件下,掛在「交易目的」項下的金融資產,可重新分類到「非交易目的」(「備供出售」或「持有至到期」)。這將允許金融機構的資產評價損失可以暫時不必列入損益表,虧損壓力將可大幅獲得紓解。目前34號公報不允許企業任意更改會計項目,掛在「交易目的」項下絕不能改掛到其他項目,否則就有操縱損益嫌疑。

官員表示,國際會計準則委員會修改會計準則,當然希望全球金融機構可以安度這次的危機,但為了避免業者趁機操縱損益,一定會訂定相當嚴格的條件,符合條件者才能重新分類資產項目。

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全球暖化 - 有錢人開車吹冷氣,窮人買單?

>> 2008/09/15

以前,對比較貧困的國家而言,全球暖化好像不干他們的事情。那是西方工業國造成的問題,「如果」 運氣好的話,西方工業國也會想出解決問題的方法。

現在看來不是這樣了,有越來越多證據顯示,全球暖化反而對這些國家的赤貧居民造成更嚴重的影響。因為氣候變遷導致可耕地面積減少、瘟疫和害蟲更容易散佈,但是這些居民沒有基本的醫療設施,無法抵禦傳染病的侵襲。糧食支出佔他們所得的比例也最高,因此糧食上漲對他們的傷害也最為沉重。

換句話說,這種局面就是:有錢國家不斷排放溫室氣體,然後看著這些貧困國家受苦的人,說聲「I'm sorry.」但是轉頭繼續過自己開車排碳的生活。

雖然弱肉強食的戲碼自古以來總是在上演著,但是這麼悲情的例子卻實在是不多。如果西方政府真的相信全球暖化是因為溫室氣體造成的 (我是有點懷疑),那麼他們提供給弱勢國家的 compensation 就不應該只有目前承諾的區區三億美元之數。(更何況目前真正拿出來的只有 十分之一!)

下面有張有趣的圖表。把世界地圖上各個國家,依照溫室氣體排放的比例來縮放,排放越多溫室氣體的國家,就被放的越大;排放少的國家就縮的較小。一眼看下去對溫室氣體排放比例就會有概念,也不難看出排放量高的國家絕對不是現在工業尚不發達的國家。(不知道為什麼,我倒是想到這篇文章來:政治情感的典範轉移)

Climate change and the poor
(Photo taken from Economist: Climate change and the poor: Adapt or die)

但是,你問我開不開車、吹不吹冷氣?我當然還是照開照吹啊... 也許會多那麼一絲絲的罪惡感吧。難道這就是人性嗎?Well,安慰自己一下:反正我本來就不大相信全球暖化是因為溫室氣體排放造成的。XD

Source: Climate change and the poor: Adapt or die

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埃及近況報導的簡略整理

>> 2008/09/14

颱風夜,煮茶聽夜雨,隨手翻閱剛到的雜誌,還滿愜意的。希望颱風沒造成什麼災害,大家都平安。

這期 Economist 出了一篇 Briefing 在講埃及現在的社會狀況。埃及不只產石油,地理位置更重要。不只控制了蘇伊士運河,也卡在亞非大陸的交接口。加上很久沒看到埃及的消息了,這篇文章格外引起我的注意。

簡略摘要一下文章內容:

政治狀態:

  • 八十高齡的埃及總統 Hosni Mubarak 已經在位 27 年 (埃及憲法規定總統得連選連任),目前沒有清晰可見的政治接班人選。
  • 社會狀態近年有動盪加劇的趨勢,然而政府努力透過改善民生、威壓異議人士來抑制群眾反彈。(包括民生狀態中提及的公教人員加薪)
  • Hosni Mubarak 的 44 歲兒子 Gamal Mubarak 已經浮出檯面,但是缺乏群眾魅力,也有不少人懷疑軍警特是否會支持他。
經濟狀態:
  • 經濟成長率從 2004 的不到 4% 突飛猛進至現在超過 7%。
  • 出口成長從 2003 的 $90 億美金到 2007 的 $240 億美金。
  • FDI (foreign direct investment) 在 2007 年達到 $110 億美金 - 是 2004 年的五倍。
  • 失業率從 2003 的 11% 降到 2008 的 8%。
  • 人口成長率趨緩,從 80 年代的 2.3% 到現在的 1.9%。
民生狀態:
  • 專業人才的短缺導致白領階級薪資飛漲。然而這也拉大了所得差距和貧富差距。
  • 許多公司抱怨埃及的大學畢業生素質不佳。
  • 30 歲埃及男性的未婚比例,從 1998 年的 63% 降到 2006 年的 45%。
  • 政府為了平息民怨,在五月間幫公務員加薪三成。
  • 政府大量補貼民生用品,市面上瓦斯價格是成本的六分之一,汽油是歐洲價格的八分之一。一條麵包價格是美金 1 美分。
外交狀態:
  • 埃及和美國的關係跌到 1973 年以來的新低點。
  • 埃及的區域影響力也正在漸漸減弱。

感想:
  1. 杜拉克在「經濟人的末日」中說的果然沒錯:獨裁的集權政府果然比民主政府更害怕群眾反彈的情緒。他們必須一面緊緊箝制政治活動力、管制言論和異議份子,同時也要盡量滿足民眾其他方面的情緒。這點不管是在埃及還是中國大陸,都看到相同的景象。
  2. 還好我不是埃及人。不過我還是很想去看看金字塔 XD
  3. Economist 提到有些輿論開始探討埃及發生大規模動亂的可能性。不過這點我有些疑慮。民眾不會只為了追求政治自由而推翻現有政體的。
Source: Egypt: Will the dam burst?

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你比較喜歡男性還是女性的領導人?

>> 2008/09/08

這張圖實在很有趣。

大家都知道 McCain 挑了個女州長當副總統人選。於是性別議題再度上了檯面。這是對美國人所做的意見調查。當被問到,智慧、創造力、同情心、野心等等各種當領導人的指標,「你覺得男性與女性孰優孰劣?」意見調查的結果表示,女性在大部分的指標都比男性優秀。

但是,當被問到,「你覺得領導人由男性或是女性擔任比較合適?」的時候,認為男性比較合適的人,卻比回答女性的人還多。

這是為什麼呢?

Leadership
(Taken from Economist: American politics: This is a man's world)

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美國終於接管 FM2 了

今天美國財政部終於證實傳言已久的消息:將用納稅人的錢替 FM2 (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac) 買單。由政府接管這兩家機構,並撤換兩家公司的執行長。雖然 Paulson 曾經宣稱不願意用納稅人的錢替兩家公司股東擦屁股,但是顯然系統性風險的事實由不得他不低頭。

FM2 總共管理的房貸業務大約是 5.4 兆美金,佔全美房貸業務的一半,這次次貸風暴受傷也最慘烈。如果當年看了 Peter Lynch 的書,卻盲目不理會其他條件,抱了 Fannie Mae 到現在的話,那荷包可也傷的很了...

那麼,FM2 被政府接管之後,美國房貸市場會怎麼走?或許應該這麼問:在崩解邊緣的房市,會因為這樣觸底反彈嗎?

Source: US Government takes over mortgage giants

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為什麼股市大跌和 633 跳票沒關係

>> 2008/09/04

請注意,我指的是和 633 的「新聞」沒關係。我也沒有替馬小九辯護的意思,開了支票自己負責兌現,政治魔人不要來鞭我。

今天 (9/4) 股票大跌,加權指數跌了 172 點。許多媒體報導都歸咎於馬英九的 633 政見跳票導致。聽了也只能笑笑。媒體總是需要為市場的起落找理由。

大家都知道,金融市場對新的消息反應極為迅速。例如某股獲利超出或是不如預期的時候,股票的漲跌往往就在幾個 tick 的時間內一次到位。但是 633 的政見跳票,是 9/3 的消息,各大報也都在 9/4 的晨報就報導了。(請見自由、聯合、中時、蘋果) 如果是因為這個消息而讓市場大跌發酵,那麼開盤就應該大跌開出才對。但是今天的指數線圖卻是這樣:

20080905走勢圖

九點多甚至還是漲的,後來一路下殺到接近 12 點才到當日低點。顯而易見,大跌的原因單純是空方力道較強,和 633 的新聞一點關係也沒有。每次市場大跌的時候,媒體總是需要一些理由的。

不過做錯方向的人,總是需要情感發洩的代罪羔羊。這也是可以理解的... 誰沒有做錯方向的時候呢?

題外話,這邊的小馬哥木炭很威啊 XD Q&A 真的讓人笑翻了 XD

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鉅子 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了

>> 2008/05/16

雖然最近忙到翻掉,但是看到這麼戲劇性的東西,還是要寫一下當紀念的 :p

就在 Steve Ballmer 說微軟決定撤回對 Yahoo 的併購案之後,今晚 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了,發表了一封公開信。這位老兄好怒啊。他形容雅虎董事會

「躲在管理階層過度樂觀的財務預測後面,十分不負責任。」
他也說,
「微軟的提案十分慷慨,對雅虎的估價比公開求婚的前一天還要高出 72%。拒絕這個提議顯然是非常不理智的。」
實力雄厚的 Carl Icahn,除了開罵以外,也擺明他不是只有一張嘴而已。公開信中聲稱,他已經花了十三億美金買了雅虎五千九百萬股 (大約佔雅虎 4% 股權)。而且他正在向美國聯邦交易委員會提出申請,希望得到反托拉斯的許可,以便買下價值二十五億美金的雅虎股權 (大約 8% 左右)。

Icahn 表示不只贊成微軟的購併案,而且也打算提案撤換雅虎的董事會 - 他已經公開提了一個十人名單,希望能夠在七月三號的雅虎股東年會上面,取得多數董事席位。十人都是赫赫有名,除了他自己以外,還包括:
  • 網路創業傳奇人物 Mark Cuban
  • Viacom 創辦人 Frank Biondi Jr.
  • New Line Cenima 的 CEO Robert Shaye
  • 創投家 Adam Dell。啥?你不認識他?那你至少該認得他哥哥 Michael Dell 吧?
Carl Icahn 這些舉動的背後,和微軟的 Steve Ballmer 有沒有什麼默契或是私下的合作,是很耐人尋味的。不過這是楊致遠和雅虎董事會要擔心的事情了。我們只要負責看連續劇看不到的好戲就好了啊! XD

話說回來,楊致遠接任 CEO 以後,風波總是不斷。他能夠有時間精力來做好公司重整的工作嗎?我很懷疑。光是應付微軟大巨獸想必就已經筋疲力竭了。現在又來一個 Carl Icahn,恐怕難得有一夜好眠了...

[註] Carl Icahn 是具有傳奇色彩的投資人。他以爭取股東權益聞名,令許多上市公司老闆聞之色變。最近的事蹟是投資摩托羅拉事件。他所投資的公司,通常伴隨著大規模的重整,包括經營階層的重新洗牌與裁員。
[註二] 公開信的全文在這裡可以看到。我照引如下:

SECURITY HOLDERS ARE ADVISED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT AND OTHER DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE SOLICITATION OF PROXIES BY Carl C. Icahn AND HIS AFFILIATES FROM THE STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. FOR USE AT ITS ANNUAL MEETING, WHEN AND IF THEY BECOME AVAILABLE, BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION, INCLUDING INFORMATION RELATING TO THE PARTICIPANTS IN ANY SUCH PROXY SOLICITATION. WHEN AND IF COMPLETED, A DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT AND A FORM OF PROXY WILL BE MAILED TO STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT NO CHARGE AT THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION'S WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SEC.GOV. INFORMATION RELATING TO THE POTENTIAL PARTICIPANTS IN A POTENTIAL PROXY SOLICITATION IS CONTAINED IN EXHIBIT 1 TO THE SCHEDULE 14A BEING FILED TODAY WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

                                Carl C. Icahn
ICAHN CAPITAL LP
767 Fifth Avenue, 47th Floor
New York, NY 10153

May 15, 2008

Roy Bostock
Chairman
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Dear Mr. Bostock:

It is clear to me that the board of directors of Yahoo has acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders and Microsoft. It is quite obvious that Microsoft's bid of $33 per share is a superior alternative to Yahoo's prospects on a standalone basis. I am perplexed by the board's actions. It is irresponsible to hide behind management's more than overly optimistic financial forecasts. It is unconscionable that you have not allowed your shareholders to choose to accept an offer that represented a 72% premium over Yahoo's closing price of $19.18 on the day before the initial Microsoft offer. I and many of your shareholders strongly believe that a combination between Yahoo and Microsoft would form a dynamic company and more importantly would be a force strong enough to compete with Google on the Internet.

During the past week, a number of shareholders have asked me to lead a proxy fight to attempt to remove the current board and to establish a new board which would attempt to negotiate a successful merger with Microsoft, something that in my opinion the current board has completely botched. I believe that a combination between Microsoft and Yahoo is by far the most sensible path for both companies. I have therefore taken the following actions: (1) during the last 10 days, I have purchased approximately 59 million shares and share-equivalents of Yahoo; (2) I have formed a 10-person slate which will stand for election against the current board; and (3) I have sought antitrust clearance from the Federal Trade Commission to acquire up to approximately $2.5 billion worth of Yahoo stock. The biographies of the members of our slate are attached to this letter. A more formal notification is being delivered today to Yahoo under separate cover.

While it is my understanding that you do not intend to enter into any transaction that would impede a Microsoft-Yahoo merger, I am concerned that in several recent press releases you stated that you intend to pursue certain "strategic alternatives". I therefore hope and trust that if there is any question that these "strategic alternatives" might in any way impede a future Microsoft merger you will at the very least allow shareholders to opine on them before embarking on such a transaction.

I sincerely hope you heed the wishes of your shareholders and move expeditiously to negotiate a merger with Microsoft, thereby making a proxy fight unnecessary.

    Sincerely yours,

CARL C. ICAHN

SLATE BIOGRAPHIES

Lucian A. Bebchuk

Lucian Bebchuk is the William J. Friedman and Alicia Townsend Friedman Professor of Law, Economics, and Finance and Director of the Program on Corporate Governance at Harvard Law School. Bebchuk is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Inaugural Fellow of the European Corporate Governance Network. Trained in both law and economics, Bebchuk holds an LL.M. and S.J.D. from Harvard Law School and an M.A. and Ph.D in Economics from the Harvard Economics Department. He joined the Harvard Law School faculty in 1986 as an assistant professor, becoming a full professor in 1988, and the Friedman Professor of Law, Economics and Finance in 1998. Bebchuk has written extensively on corporate governance, corporate control, and corporate transactions. He has published more than seventy research articles in academic journals in law, economics, and finance. Upon electing him to membership in 2000, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences cited him as "[o]ne of the nation's leading scholars of law and economics," who "has made major contribution to the study of corporate control, governance, and insolvency." He is the 2007-2008 President of the American Law and Economics Association, and a former chair of the Business Association Section of the American Association of Law Teachers. Bebchuk's recent writings include Pay without Performance: the Unfulfilled Promise of Executive Compensation (Harvard University Press, 2004, co-authored with Jesse Fried), "The Case for Increasing Shareholder Power" (Harvard Law Review, 2005), "The Costs of Entrenched Boards" (Journal of Financial Economics, 2005, co-authored with Alma Cohen), and "The Myth of the Shareholder Franchise" (Virginia Law Review, 2007). Bebchuk has been a frequent contributor to policy making and public discourse in the corporate governance area. He has appeared before the Senate Finance Committee, the House Committee of Financial Services, and the SEC. He has published many op-ed pieces, including in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Financial Times. He was included in the list of "100 most influential people in finance" of Treasury & Risk Management and the list of "100 most influential players in corporate governance" of Directorship magazine.

Frank J. Biondi, Jr.

Since March 1999, Mr. Biondi has served as Senior Managing Director of WaterView Advisors LLC, an investment advisor organization. From April 1996 to November 1998, Mr. Biondi served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Universal Studios, Inc. From July 1987 to January 1996, Mr. Biondi served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Viacom, Inc. Mr. Biondi is a director of Amgen Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp., Hasbro, Inc., The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and Seagate Technology. Mr. Biondi is a graduate of Princeton University and earned a Masters of Business Administration from Harvard University.

John H. Chapple

John Chapple is President of Hawkeye Investments LLC, a privately-owned equity firm investing primarily in telecommunications and real estate ventures frequently working in conjunction with Rally Capital LLC. Prior to forming Hawkeye, John Chapple worked to organize Nextel Partners, a provider of digital wireless services in mid-size and smaller markets throughout the U.S. He became the President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Nextel Partners and its subsidiaries in August of 1998. Nextel Partners went public in February 2000 and was traded on the NASDAQ Exchange. In June 2006, the company was purchased by Sprint Communications. From 1995 to 1997, Mr. Chapple was the President and Chief Operating Officer for Orca Bay Sports and Entertainment in Vancouver, B.C. During Mr. Chapple's tenure, Orca Bay owned and operated Vancouver's National Basketball Association and National Hockey League sports franchises in addition to the General Motors Place sports arena and retail interests. From 1988 to 1995, he served as Executive Vice President of Operations for McCaw Cellular Communications and subsequently AT&T Wireless Services following the merger of those companies. From 1978 to 1983, he served on the senior management team of Rogers Cablesystems before moving to American Cablesystems as Senior Vice President of Operations from 1983 to 1988. Mr. Chapple, a graduate of Syracuse University and Harvard University's Advanced Management Program, has 26 years of experience in the cable television and wireless communications industries. Mr. Chapple is the past Chairman of Cellular One Group and CTIA-The Wireless Association, past Vice-Chairman of the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association and has been on the Board of Governors of the NHL and NBA. Mr. Chapple serves on the Syracuse University Board of Trustees currently as Chairman and the Advisory Board for the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. He is also on the Board of Directors of Cbeyond, Inc., a publicly traded Atlanta-based integrated service telephony company; Seamobile Enterprises, a privately held company providing integrated wireless services at sea; Telesphere, a privately held VOIP (voice over internet protocol) company based in Phoenix, Arizona; and on the advisory boards of Diamond Castle Holdings, LLC, a private equity firm based in New York City and the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs at University of Washington.

Mark Cuban

Since early 2000, Mr. Cuban has been the majority and controlling owner of the National Basketball Association franchise, the Dallas Mavericks. In 2001, Mr. Cuban co-founded HDNet, an all high-definition television network on DIRECTV that broadcasts high-definition sports, movies and other entertainment. Prior to his purchase of the Dallas Mavericks, Mr. Cuban co- founded Broadcast.com in 1995 and served as its Chairman of the Board until it was sold to Yahoo! in July of 1999. Before Broadcast.com, Mr. Cuban co-founded MicroSolutions, a national systems integrator, in 1983, which was later sold to CompuServe Corporation in 1990. Mr. Cuban is an active investor in cutting- edge technologies and various industries, including the entertainment industry.

Adam Dell

Since January 2000, Mr. Dell has served as the Managing General Partner of Impact Venture Partners, a venture capital firm focused on information technology investments. He also serves as Managing Director at Steelpoint Capital Partners, a private equity firm with offices in New York and California. From October 1998 to January 2000, Mr. Dell was a Senior Associate and subsequently a Partner with Crosspoint Venture Partners in Northern California. From July 1997 to August 1998, he was a Senior Associate with Enterprise Partners in Southern California. From January 1996 to June 1997 Mr. Dell was associated with the law firm of Winstead Sechrest & Minick, in Austin, Texas, where he practiced corporate law. Mr. Dell's investments include: Buzzsaw (which was acquired by Autodesk), HotJobs (which was acquired by Yahoo!) and Connectify (which was acquired by Kana Software). Mr. Dell has been a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. In addition, Mr. Dell currently serves on the boards of directors of the Santa Fe Institute, MessageOne and OpenTable. He also teaches a course at the Columbia Business School on business, technology and innovation and is a contributing columnist to the technology publication, Business 2.0. Mr. Dell received a J.D. from University of Texas and a B.A. from Tulane University.

Carl C. Icahn

Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and a director of Starfire Holding Corporation, a privately-held holding company, and chairman of the board and a director of various subsidiaries of Starfire, since 1984. Since August 2007, through his position as Chief Executive Officer of Icahn Capital LP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P., and certain related entities, Mr. Icahn's principal occupation is managing private investment funds, including Icahn Partners LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund II L.P. and Icahn Partners Master Fund III L.P. Prior to August 2007, Mr. Icahn conducted this occupation through his entities CCI Onshore Corp. and CCI Offshore Corp since September 2004. Since November 1990, Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P. Icahn Enterprises L.P. is a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Mr. Icahn was chairman of the board and president of Icahn & Co., Inc., a registered broker- dealer and a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, from 1968 to 2005. Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and as a director of American Railcar Industries, Inc., a company that is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing covered hopper and tank railcars, since 1994. From October 1998 through May 2004, Mr. Icahn was the president and a director of Stratosphere Corporation, the owner and operator of the Stratosphere Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, which, until February 2008, was a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P. From September 2000 to February 2007, Mr. Icahn served as the chairman of the board of GB Holdings, Inc., which owned an interest in Atlantic Coast Holdings, Inc., the owner and operator of The Sands casino in Atlantic City until November 2006. Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board and a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. Mr. Icahn has served as a Director of Cadus Corporation, a company engaged in the ownership and licensing of yeast-based drug discovery technologies since July 1993. In May 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of Blockbuster Inc., a provider of in-home movie rental and game entertainment. In October 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of WestPoint International, Inc., a manufacturer of bed and bath home fashion products. In September 2006, Mr. Icahn became a director of ImClone Systems Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, and since October 2006 has been the chairman of the board of ImClone. In August 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company, and since September 2007 has been the chairman of the board of WCI. In December 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products, and since January 2008 has been the chairman of the board of Federal-Mogul. In April 2008, Mr. Icahn became a director of Motricity, Inc., a privately-held company that provides mobile content services and solutions. Mr. Icahn received his B.A. from Princeton University.

Keith A. Meister

Since March 2006, Keith Meister has served as Principal Executive Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P., a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Since November 2004, Mr. Meister has been a Managing Director of Icahn Capital LP, the entity through which Carl C. Icahn manages third party private investment funds. Since June 2002, Mr. Meister has served as senior investment analyst of High River Limited Partnership, an entity primarily engaged in the business of holding and investing in securities. Mr. Meister also serves on the boards of directors of the following companies: XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications company; WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company; Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products; and Motorola, Inc., a mobile communications company. With respect to each company mentioned above, Carl C. Icahn, directly or indirectly, either (i) controls such company or (ii) has an interest in such company through the ownership of securities. Mr. Meister received an A.B. in government, cum laude, from Harvard College in 1995.

Edward H. Meyer

Mr. Meyer serves as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Road Advisors, Inc., an investment management company. From 1970 to 2006, he served as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Grey Global Group, Inc., a multi-billion dollar global advertising and marketing agency. Mr. Meyer serves as a Director of Harman International Industries, Inc., Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc., National CineMedia, Inc. and NRDC Acquisition Corp. Mr. Meyer holds a B.A. in Economics from Cornell University.

Brian S. Posner

Brian S. Posner is a private investor. From 2005 through March 2008, he served as Chief Executive Officer and co-Chief Investment Officer of ClearBridge Advisors LLC (and its predecessor company, CAM North America), an asset management company based in New York with approximately $90 billion in assets and a wholly owned subsidiary of Legg Mason Inc. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors, he was a co-Founder and the Managing Partner of Hygrove Partners LLC, a hedge fund company that was formed in 2000. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors and Hygrove Partners, he served as a Portfolio Manager and an Analyst, first at Fidelity Investments from 1987 to 1996 and then at Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management from 1997 to 1999. At Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management he was a Managing Director and served as the Senior Investment Manager of the Value Equity Group, co-Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Growth & Income Fund, and Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Institutional Value Fund and the Warburg Pincus Trust, Growth and Income Fund. Prior to the acquisition of Warburg Pincus Asset Management ("WPAM") by Credit Suisse Asset Management in July 1999, he was co-Chief Investment Officer, Director of Research, Chairman of the Global Asset Allocation Committee, and a member of the Executive Operating Committee at WPAM. At Fidelity Investments, he was the Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Equity Income II Fund from 1992 to 1996 and the Fidelity Value Fund from 1990 to 1992. He also managed the Select Life Insurance, Select Property Casualty Insurance and Select Energy Portfolios. From 1987 to 1990, he was an Oil, Insurance, and Financial Services Analyst. From August 2000 to April 2003 he served on the Board of Directors for Sotheby's Holdings, Inc. He currently a member of the Board of Trustees at Northwestern University and the Board of Visitors for the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences at Northwestern University. Mr. Posner received his undergraduate degree in history from Northwestern University in 1983 and his M.B.A. in finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business in 1987.

Robert K. Shaye

Robert Shaye is Co-Chairman and Co-CEO of New Line Cinema. As the Founder of New Line Cinema and a filmmaker himself, Robert Shaye has spent more than 40 years developing and distributing films that reflect a wide array of cultural movements, creating new paradigms for the motion picture business, and most importantly, entertaining millions of moviegoers. Since he founded New Line in 1967, Shaye has guided the company's growth from a privately-held art film distributor to one of the entertainment industry's leading independent studios and a veritable box office force. He has been involved in such films as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, Rush Hour, Austin Powers and Seven. A University of Michigan graduate with a degree in business administration and a J.D. degree from Columbia University Law School, Shaye is also a Fulbright Scholar, member of the New York State Bar, and serves on the Board of Trustees of the Motion Picture Pioneers, and the American Film Institute.


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達賴喇嘛為什麼支持奧運?

>> 2008/04/20

前陣子就想寫,只是這陣子實在太忙。看到這種發言,不知情的人大概會以為達賴喇嘛不是鄉愿就是瘋子吧。



西藏出了這種事情,全世界都罵中共罵的要死,簡直是負面 PR 的極致表現。瞬時之間,奧運聖火成為過街老鼠人人喊打,各國領袖也都對是否參加奧運開幕躲躲閃閃避而不談,唯恐惹麻煩上身。

那為什麼達賴喇嘛居然還可以說,他支持北京政府辦奧運?為什麼他還要特別說他不追求西藏獨立?講難聽的,人家事不關己的都比你還激動、比你還替你的人民生氣了,你怎麼還一副慈悲為懷、中共打我左臉我右臉就貼給你打的樣子呢?

其實道理很簡單,因為達賴了解中共政權的處境。中共花了無數的時間,好不容易營造出中國從百餘年來屈辱的歷史中重新站起的形象。這股力量的巔峰,就是奧運的舉行。這種時候,中共領導人如果膽敢對西藏問題讓步,他的領導位子就很有可能動搖。達賴心中或許是希望獨立的,畢竟從歷史觀點來說,藏人和中原文化實在關係不深,只是從清朝以後就「隸屬」於中國罷了。但是西藏要怎麼獨立?中共和西藏流亡政府的領導人必然都理解,戰火絕對是有害無利。但是相同的,他們也知道如果西藏試圖獨立,那麼兵爭無法避免 - 即便中共領導人明明知道這對國家利益有損無益。因為如果他們坐視西藏獨立還不採取軍事行動,就無法面對國內的政治壓力。

這股政治壓力有多強、多不理性?只要看最近他們的反法示威、阻止人民去家樂福購物的情景就能夠理解了。而這種民族主義情緒的普及,從公安單位的默許也可以窺知一二。

請不要誤會,我並不是在替北京政權的領導人開脫,我也相信他們絕對不是茹素念經的善男信女。但是我想指出的是,即使他們心中知道使用暴力對國家利益有害,無論他們心裡有多不願意訴諸武力,但是只要西藏追求獨立,那麼武裝行動是必然的結果。同樣的,有任何阻撓奧運的障礙的話,他們也會不計代價的掃除─不管副作用有多猛烈。鎮壓西藏暴動只是一個最近的例子。再猛烈的副作用,對他們來說,都比不上喪失政權可怕。天安門事件就是前車可鑒啊。

達賴支持奧運、不追求藏獨的聲明,是不能夠被一般年輕藏人所理解的。但是這也是他有苦難言的地方。在現實環境底下,要怎麼追求人民利益的最大化,是很不容易的。要讓全民都可以體諒理解,更不容易。「民可使由之,不可使知之」,或許就是這樣吧。

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異地備援風!博客來 => 誠品 =>?

>> 2008/02/22

商場上的競爭果然十分激烈。上次才說到博客來用極低的成本做好異地備援,今天就看到泰瑞說誠品起而效尤。果然看到人家 cost down 不學一下就遜掉了啊。

話說回來,誠品在急著跟出版商簽新約榨乾他們以前,恐怕也沒什麼意願多花功夫在消費者的資料安全上面吧?

我常常在想,國內到底有沒有哪家業者的個人資料是沒有外流的?詐騙集團手上這麼多筆個資,擺明了不只是一兩家業者外洩,而是全面性的問題。不過或許是個資外流的罰則太低,也沒有消費者因為個資外流導致權益受損以後,求償成功的案例,導致每個公司都耍賴不作好流程控管跟資料保密吧。

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南非的能源危機

>> 2008/02/07

powerplant...
photo from youraddresshere
南非也陷入能源危機了。只不過南非的問題不是因為國際能源價格高漲 (南非自己就有煤礦啊!),而是因為政府和人民坐視危機發生。

根據這期經濟學人的報導,南非的電力供應正處在極端不穩定的狀態。交通因為號誌燈不亮陷入癱瘓,商店沒辦法正常提供服務,煮個熱食都不容易,就連南非重要的礦產公司都因為電源無法獲得保障,而暫停開採鑽石、黃金、煤礦的作業。(買戒指的不知道會不會因此鑽石漲價?XD)

現在礦產開採已經恢復作業,因為政府重新保證穩定電源的供應。但是他們也要求礦產公司,「只使用本來電力消耗的九成」。官方發言人說,限電措施應該會繼續到七月左右。

穩定而充足的電力是重要的基礎建設,缺電當然會造成嚴重的社會問題。不過為什麼說南非碰到的問題是人民和政府造成的呢?

因為南非直到幾年前都不缺電,而且遠在十年前就已經知道,大約 2007 年南非會面臨電力不足的問題。那為什麼政府沒做什麼來避免危機發生?因為當時南非忙著辯論電力事業究竟應該公營還是民營化,直到 2004 年公營的電力公司才獲得允許,開始建設電廠。但是現在興建中的電力設備要到 2014 年才能發揮作用,也表示至少未來五年內電力供應都沒辦法獲得穩定的保障。

知道未來會缺電沒有用。重要的是避免未來會缺電。還記得諾亞方舟的啟示嗎?

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